Hall of Fame or Not

On this installment of Hall of Fame or Not, I examine the careers of two big guys and diminutive and productive shooting guard.

Baseball — David Ortiz

Pros:
-He’s 43 homers away from 500 and he averages 42 over a 162 game period. He’s 38 now but he’s probably playing until he’s 40.
-Career .284 average, 1511 RBI, hit 30 home runs seven times and 54 once in 2006. Career OPS of .925. Had WARs over 4 five times.
-Arguably the best DH of all time with Edgar Martinez.
–Won perhaps the greatest game of all-time with a walk off dinger.
–Then he did it again the next night in 14 innings.
–Boston strong

-He has three rings

Cons:
-He’s a career DH. Some baseball writers have a real problem this.
-His career as we know it, hitting 30 home runs and close to .300 didn’t really start until 2003. He had two pretty bad years back-to-back in 2008 and 09. Still hit 23 and 28 home runs with 89 and 99 RBI but his averages were .264 and .238.
–Has some PED talk swirling around him

Final Verdict: He should get in even if he doesn’t get to 500 home runs. In a few years, the National League will have a DH and the DH stuff will die down. The Hall-of-Fame is meant to cherish moments like that 2004 World Series run and giving Big Papi a bronze bust is a perfect way to do it.

Football — Orlando Pace

Pros:
-He was a seven-time pro-bowler and three-time all-pro.
-His contemporary Jonathan Ogden is already in the Hall.
-The Greatest Show on Turf never gets off the ground without Pace. Pace’s play was absolutely essential for keeping stone-footed quarterbacks Kurt Warner and Marc Bulger from getting murdered on the long posts that were a staple of the Mike Martz offense. The Martz years in Chicago are a good example.
-Has a ring.

Cons:
-There aren’t really stats for offensive linemen.
-There was no doubt of his prowess through 2005 and then his career fell off a cliff.
-Played 12 years, which is the same number as Ogden.

Final Verdict:
-I would think he gets in but the voters for Canton are a hard group to judge sometimes. He’s the second best left tackle of his era and the best guy is already in the Hall.

Basketball — Allen Iverson

Pros:
-He averaged 26.7 points per game in his career. He averaged 30 five times. He’s 22nd all-time in scoring.
-He’s a better defender than he gets credit for, averaging 2.2 steals per game and leading the league in thefts in 2002-03 and 2004-05.
-Has a career PER of 20.9.
-He took Eric Snow, George Lynch, Theo Ratliff, Aaron McKie and Dikembe Mutombo to the finals in 2000-01.
–Then he won game 2 of the finals by himself.
-The killer cross over.
–Hates practice.
-Tough as nails, was always undersized and got beat up on drives.

Cons:
-A huge ball hog. He led the league in field goal attempts four times. His highest shooting percentage was .461.
-He shot below 40 percent from field two years in his prime in 2001-02 and 2003-04.
-When he was on a good team, late in his career with Denver, they lost in the first round of the playoffs each year. When they traded him to Detroit in 2008-09 they made the western conference finals and the Pistons lost in the first round.
-Doesn’t have a ring.
–Not the best attitude.

Final Verdict:
-I think Iverson is going to get in, but should he? I don’t think AI was a good team player and thus his teams were flawed by his constant lust for the ball. Who would have been the ideal teammates for Iverson en route to a title? I don’t know if anyone group of players would have worked. That doesn’t sound like a hall-of-famer to me.

My Philosophy if I was a GM of a MLB team

Chances of me being a major league baseball general manager are about as good me starting in center field for the Cardinals.

However, this will show my perspective as a fan.

Position Players

A guy worth spending money on

1. I don’t care how we score runs. Singles, suicide squeezes, sacrifice flies, home runs, it doesn’t matter.

2. Why has average become a passe statistic? You give me a team of guys who hit close to .300 and we’re making the playoffs.

3. Left field, right field, first base and third base are positions that must hit. If the guy isn’t doing it with the bat, send him down to the minors. Hitters can be found at these positions for cheap (with maybe the exception of third), prospects or large dollars should only be spent for exceptional hitters (.300 and 30 plus homers or steals) at these positions.

4. I would like at least one legit power threat, someone other teams are afraid of in either cleanup or 3 hole.

5. I would like at least one speed threat. Running disrupts a pitcher. Best way to get a big inning is a one out walk that a guy turns into a double with his legs.

6. A walk is as good as a hit.

7. Catcher, second base, short stop and center field are positions that must be good with the glove. If you can find one of these positions that can hit, now you’re playing with house money. Players at these positions that can hit and field are worth high round draft picks, prospects in trades and big money.

8. (For an AL team) My DH better hit like a monster, .300 and 30 plus homers, or be cheap.

9. (For NL team) I would want my pitchers to be at least passable at the plate, like can bunt a runner over.

10. I want my catcher, short stop, center fielder and best hitter to be smart. Manny Ramirez kind of bucks that last trend.

11. You need a mixture of young guys and veterans, hopefully the clubhouse stays loose but is not carefree.

Pitching

1. You can never have too many good pitchers.

2. A starter is always more valuable than a reliever, call this the Adam Wainwright principle.

3. Stuff trumps velocity, location trumps velocity but stuff trumps location. Pitch speed is overrated. A 92 mph fastball with late downward movement is just as hard to hit as 100 mph heater. That being said you can teach a guy to locate (although it is difficult). There’s almost no guy with all three; guys who can locate with nasty stuff are worth big money or prospects.

4. I want my starters to be smart or at least the top 2 guys. I want my closer to be dumb as a sack of hammers. There’s a reason that short memory has worked it’s way into the baseball vernacular.

5. Do not draft a projected reliever any higher than round 4, even closers. Every year there’s a new closer who lights every one up. You shake a tree, 10 relievers fall out.

6. A guy doesn’t throw strikes, get rid of him. I can forgive a young guy getting hit hard but loading the bases and then walking in a run earns an automatic demotion to Triple A.

7. Just like batting average, ERA is my stat. My entire rotation has an ERA around 3.00, we’re making the playoffs. Wins for a starter, however, are meaningless.

8. Durable guys are valuable. I’m not sure if pitch count is the right way to do things. It seems to vary wildly from guy to guy.

9. Your ace sets the tone for all your pitchers. He needs to be a hard worker.

Transactions

1. For buyers, in season trades, usually don’t go well. Do not raid the farm unless your World Series window is quickly closing with an aging or soon to be too expensive club. The Hunter Pence trade is the only one I can think of that helped a team win the World Series.

2. For sellers, trade away, especially if the guys is old. Prospects are valuable.

3. It’s better to make moves in the off-season because that way you get a whole year out of a guy.

4. Be wary of any long term deals. Father time is undefeated.

5. Somewhat contradictory, extensions for young guys are a good idea. It also makes them more valuable in a trade.

My Favorite Dave Duncan Reclamation Projects

As a St. Louis Cardinals fan, I miss Dave Duncan’s wizardry as a pitching coach. For all accounts, Derek Lilliquist has done a fine job since Tony La Russa and Duncan retired but Duncan is the greatest pitching coach ever. La Russa once called him the Albert Pujols of pitching coaches; in retrospect that was an understatement.

Duncan’s specialty was getting the most out of pitching cast offs. He did this with great fame in Oakland but I’m going to focus on Cardinals guys.

5. Darryl Kile

Kile went 8-13 with a 6.61 ERA, 116 strikeouts and 109 walks in his last season in Colorado. His FIP was 5.98 because he gave up 33 home runs. His WHIP was 1.752.

His first season in St. Louis, he went 20-9, with an ERA of 3.91, 192 strikeouts and 52 walks. His WHIP dropped to 1.175 and his FIP to 4.24 even though he still gave up 33 homeruns (striking out way more guys helps that).

Kile’s resurgence was as much about getting out of Denver as Duncan’s expertise. The thin Mile-High air messes with curveballs and Kile’s 12-6er was always his best pitch. The difference in amount of strikes thrown is significant. Pounding the zone was always a Dave Duncan staple.

Who knows if Kile would have kept that up; he died just three years later.

4. Matt Morris

Morris was the first guy I remember ever coming back strong after Tommy John Surgery. He sat out all of 1999 and most of 2000. Next year he rattles off a 22-8 record, 3.16 ERA, 185 strikeouts, 3.05 FIP and 1.257 WHIP.

I’m not sure if many people remember but Morris when he came up threw ridiculously hard, like 98 mph. He had to change the way he pitched after the surgery. He threw way more curveballs afterwards and generally worked the corners with his fastball.

3. Woody Williams

This is the classic case because it involved an in season transformation.

Woody in San Diego in 2001: 8-8, 4.97 ERA, 102 Ks, 1.428 WHIP and 5.02 FIP.
Woody in St. Louis: 7-1, 2.28 ERA, 76 Ks, 1.055 WHIP and 3.76 FIP.

In this case, Duncan taught Williams a sinker, which the red-haired hurler through very often henceforth.

2. Jeff Weaver

Weaver was not a very good regular season pitcher for the Birds. In 2006, he went 5-4 with a 5.18 ERA.

It’s what he did in the post season though as to why he’s included in this list. Second only to La Russa’s mastery of a maligned bullpen, Weaver was the most improbable thing during that World Series run. He won three games that year in the playoffs, including one in the series against Detroit. His overall ERA was less than 2.00.

The Jeff Weaver story is fascinating to me. He was a fireballer with an unorthodox deliver –wild leg kick — and an unruly blond mane when he was young. His best season was 2002 with Detroit and the Yankees: he went 11-11 with a 3.54 ERA and 132 strikeouts. He was 6-8 for Detroit which was an accomplishment for what was one of the worst teams ever at the time.

The Yankees messed him up though. They changed his delivery and made him cut his hair. He bounced around after that and didn’t have an ERA under 4.00 again.

I really think Dave Duncan got him to revert back to the old Jeff Weaver, just wing it up there and we’ll live with the consequences, if only for a short period of time.

1. Chris Carpenter

Carpenter was a decent pitcher in Toronto, but he never had an ERA under 4.00. After he had Tommy John, the Cardinals picked him up. In 2004 he went 15-4 with a 3.46 ERA and 152 strikeouts. The next year he went 21-5 with a 2.83 ERA, 213 strikeouts, 1.055 WHIP and 2.90 FIP. He went on to have one of the best careers of any Cardinals pitcher.

I think the Dave Duncan adjustment here was to get Carpenter to take a little off his velocity, not have every pitch be perfect and then throw a lot more strikes. His last season in Toronto he walked 75 batters. He averaged 48 walks per season as a Cardinal. At the same time, he averaged 177 strikeouts per year with the Red Birds.

And he’s one of the best postseason pitchers ever, crucial in both the 2006 and 2011 World Series wins.

I’m a homer but if you gave me a choice of Chris Carpenter or Roy Halladay, one-time Toronoto teammates, right at the beginning of their careers, I would pick Carpenter even though he did not have as spectacular numbers.